The false appearence on bull market

Recently, many local economy review and regional stock market price and capitalization weight has shown the economy was on the path of recovery and bullish market is coming. This is a good news that every investors be keen to hear and this is the ONLY good news what we have currently. What i can capture on what has happened on our planet economy is the economic stimulus packages that worth 14 million US Dollar has worsen the US economy structure, instead Asian economy recovery has been expected to become the "medicine" to accelerate world's consumption.

Even Asian economy performance has become first light of morning for global economy recovery, but we still can't too optimistic. There are 2 sakes here: First, governmental over expansionary budgetary policies, implemented together with approach zero nominal interest rate, failure to regain the global's demand. Second, excessive cash flow inject into financial market is probably to prompt up the asset price bubbles, and lead to false appearence on the economy.

Some of the economicts have retract theirs opinion on the types of our economy recovery process from "W" & "L" form, to "V" recovery and has proposed that even the risk on economy recovery has been scatter, but the central bank on this planet should need to retain the expansionary monetary and budgetary policies since they have viewed positive growth of the second quaters Korean and China GDP. Indeed, it is a fact that we may to worry.

Massive expansionary policies and market stimulus packages which implemented by China has lead to market bubbles and publics over heated market sentiment has worsen the condition. Every investors and consumers be keen to listen to China's bullish market (false appearence) news. But it is not a great medicine for China's economy. It is because the bullish sign of the stock market also can't reduce the degree of high dependent on the export to abroad. The bullish sign of the stock market is just merely an outcome of increase the governmental liability to foster up such short-term prosperity. This is a common phenomena facing by Asian now.

Monetary policy just can be a supplement to the budgetary policy. Asian's recovery sign is thanks to the consecutive economy stimulus packages outcome. But, the effect will scatter following with time. At this moment, the central bank should decrease the interest rate to prop up the market. It is just a temporary scheme, and merely alleviate the symptoms and not can't cure the root. It just will cause economy sink into asset price bubbles and traps, but it seems like economy growth. The optimistic expectation on Asian economy recovery by "V" shape , has foment the assets price bubbles trap.

Our mess educational policy - teaching M&S in english

It is really a bored and stupid topic for me but it had been arguing and hoo-ha for five years long. To be frank and open with you, i still misunderstanding with the "value" of it has become a "hot topic" to be discussed. Is it economically for us to continue this bad policy? I strongly stand on my own opinion -"NO". For me, it is a "poisonous asset" that had left by our foolish former prime minister - Dr. M (I no need mention his name clearly, otherwise i will be arrested under ISA probably...haha). We have spent too much effort and time for this uneconomically policy and it must be rectified immediately. Not i disagree with M&S taught in English, but what i would like to stress here is whether our nation will advance from upper middle income to high income or developed country is not solely depend on which language has been applied in teaching, but is more than that. Healthy economy structure & policies, transparency of administration of justice and anti-corruption mechanism, high politician's aspiration, social welfare, government servant efficiency and so on are an essentials that need to consider too. Maybe there will have many peoples are preparing to oppose with what i am talking nonsense here, but those are welcome! We may can have a drink and debate on this issue. I know many peoples will take Singaporean's success story as an example on this issue on the language they base onto. I have to admit that Singaporean's English proficiency is much more better than Malaysian, but we must look in macro perspective and don't forget that the safety environment, transparency in justiciary and anti-corruption, positive working attitude and strong desire to achieve excellent (Kia-shu) also are the factors that prop up the Singaporean legend, it is a special case. How about the other Asian countries - Philipina & India where widely use English as a medium in teaching and communication? Both of this countries were also categorized as low income and low living standard country. So, it has proven that language was not the only proximate cause to determine a country achievement and it is no any direct correlation between this two variables. It is OK if you give the sake that it is aimed to improve students English proficiency. We must back to the root of the problems. We knew that most of the Malaysians English level whether in speaking, writing and understanding skills alike are in "private limited company" standard (include myself). So, why not we just extend the duration of English language subject in school, introduce the English Literature subject in the early age of school , widen the scope of subjects to be taught in English and put more efforts on how to promote and make English usage practically & effectively? Do you think that the idea to make M&S to be taught in English will improve student's English grammar command? Sorry, i not think so! The crux of the problems here is some of the racialist play a political game on this issue to obtain their self-interest and it is a sorrow for Malaysian actually. It is unjust and unfair for us to bear the social cost due to an inappropriate policies by racialist policymaker-Dr. M. But fortunately, two weeks ago, our educational minister-Muhyiddin Yassin had announced to reform and reevaluate the overall teaching Mathematics and Sciences in English language effectiveness. Well, it is really a bold move for Malaysian politician, i think we should praise him loudly of his courage to abolish Dr. M's policies (In fact, Dr. M until now still deems with what he has done was benefit to our next generation) and many organization has welcome to this good move. But i personally feel that our regardful BN minister still chaos on their standpoint on this issue. It is because i can't see the blueprint of the suggestion- primary school - M&S to be taught in Bahasa Malaysia, secondary school - re-change to Bahasa Inggeris again. I am really confusing with our minister, i think it is more proper to call them as innovationist. If they really feel English is important, (indeed, it is very important) so, go ahead la and please be more enchantment to ensure the policy to be implemented effectively and has started from primary school to university level, and cover all subjects and not merely M&S. It is quiet ridiculous if the policy change and change again and give the reason that they are worry about their mother language will varnish from this world. We will always at spiral and seem like an experimental rat. Otherwise, it will encumber our nation productivity and contract our economic competitiveness. Remember, the education is the basic of quality and productive human resourse and to long term economy growth .

I feel that our government too rush to run this policy without a proper evaluation mechanism and Dr. M must responsible on the social cost which arised.

An advisory statement for central bank

Nowadays, the globe economy especially US economy is seems like suffering a "pestilence" - sink into a boundless asset price bubbles trap and it has caused a mass credit fault and bubbles and the inappropriate policy has worsen the condition that we facing now.

Once our financial structure is unstable and into booms and busts cyclical, all participants in the economy must recognize the fact that: using any monetary and budgetary policy to ameliorate or eradicate any deflation phenomena is not a probably and an unreasonable action. Instead, the central bank on this planet should back to its core value - to regulate the proceeding of credit creation meanwhile, foster up the high pressure combat mechanism, be sure so not to obey to the government and private sectors needs to continue the expansionary credit easing to accelerate the unhealthy economy activities. If the expansionary credit creation persists, pernicious business cycle will not only unbounded but it also will encumber our world's economy.

I personally believe that our financial system is not operate on the basic of Efficient Market Hypothesis(proposed by classical economist), but it will collapse follow with the main classical economy theories. The Efficient Market Hypothesis has suggested that our financial market was like a tractable animal, it will calm once you ignore it and it will reach an equilibratory condition automatically. In fact, our financial market's nature is unstable; no any equilibrant force can we rely on; instead, it has its inertia force which will prompt up the booms and busts cyclical to disrupt our economy structure. What i would like to emphasize here is only credit creation regulation imposed by central bank will able to control its unstable nature. Unfortunately, the historical experience has proven that the monetary policy implemented by central bank was probably changed along with time, and has enlarge the booms and busts cyclical, waver our economy health structure.

I would like to take this opportunity to blame on the expansionary monetary policy which implemented by US Federal Reserve (Fed), it has lead US fall into a consecutive expansionary credit cycle. I bold to say, if US still deem that they are in the right way of making a proper decision in order to move the economy onto recovery path, it will harm and alter the US as a world economy leading position.

Stagflation is coming soon...

Is big inflation coming? I think this may be a jest and is an unquestioned trouble for many others people because of their narrowed horizontal on economy forecast and background. Many peoples have said to me before "It not should be a main concern in this special moment" and "no others matter rather than pumping money into market to recover our nation's economy from consecutive downturn". I personally feel that the next challenge we need to deal with is not merely an inflation, but is Stagflation.

The bulls and bears are now are the most critical point that they have had in years for the global markets and economy. What we are experiencing today or going to face is the most devastating economic scenario, namely, rising prices in a deflationary environment isn't in a typical sense.

I personally feel that the governments on this planet especially with Obama regime, printing more artificial money than ever, they have been creating a more larger monster for the world to deal with and the side effects are already showing up. What are they doing today to reviving economy's vigor from deflationary mires is matching with what stated in Keynesian ideology by inject and speed up the cash flow into financial market, even making an unproductive investment in an unproductive sectors.

The worst is over but the world is still in a deep recession and we aren't probably even in the middle of the recovery path. Based on past experience, it's need to take 24 months to back our economy onto the correct path. Therefore, my own belief is that the global economy has largely stabilised if compared with 1997/1998 Asean Financial Crisis and it will recover end of this year.

Unfortunately, i also remain convinced that it will just for temporary moment, afterward it will fall agains - W-shaped recovering model appearance, and not V-shaped recovery. Every government on the planet is trying to stretch things out in the hope the time will resolve the problems. A V-shaped recovery is simply a myth promoted by the shills working for brokerage firms especially in property sectors.

One important things i would like to stress here is in this under global mess under over printing artificial money, the global stock market are more overvalued than before. The liquidity wave that central bank unleashed since the financial crisis happened is floating our whole economy's structure. The argument that we are hearing from some of the best mind in financial market is that we will see a new secular bull market in Malaysia regardless of what is going to happen in US market. That's really a bold call! Please... when you are talking to economics, don't quote stock market as a primary indicator to gauge the actual strength of our nation economy. Remember, the overheating in our capital market should be seen as an another concedely problems - over excess money in capital market will lead to asset bubbled, commodities price are rising. In particular, fuel prices have been rising mostly because of leveraged positive feedback speculative assets bubbles. All these will move our economy into inflationary pressure later.

Many people strongly believe that economy are onto the recovery path by looking on many manufacturing mills restart their daily operation. It is just temporary and due to inventory goods has finished. I don't think that this phenomena is caused by excess demand in market. It can proved by consecutive high unemployment rate and consumer's willingness to purchase are still in dim outlook although the figure has shown there are increasing in confidence our economy recovery from end of this year. It's because through the bigger financial meltdown after postwar in this case, much more consumers started realize the importance of saving.

Indeed, risk to growth is still high. I believe that growth in dosmestic demand continuelly expected to suffer an unpronounced slowdown, to dip into the negative slowdown trajectory. Private expenditure is expected to perform badly. Exports will face an intensified contraction from the sluggish American economy outlook. Once our labor market conditions remain weak, American economy continuely in dim outlook (our export will be contracted) and the side effect of excessive money flow in market ferment later, it is the right time for all reckless policymaker to confront with a more devasting scnerio - Stagflation, and it is inevitable.